Approximately 80% of global wheat consumption goes directly into food and seed use. There are 11 wheat-producing countries, spread between the northern and southern hemispheres, which account for more than 85% of global production. Global wheat consumption is distributed among numerous consuming countries. Forecasting wheat prices have become more complex in the broader context of differing classes and grades of wheat, demand substitution between different grains for feed and changing trade flows.
Key facts about the wheat market
- Global wheat production is expected to reach 764 million tonnes in 2019/20, of which 182 million tonnes would be exported and 751 million tonnes would be consumed.
- Global wheat consumption annual growth has averaged about 1.5% in the last decade.
- Russia and Ukraine have captured significant market share of the global export market in the last decade while the Middle East, Africa and South East Asia account for more than half of global wheat imports.
- In the most recent price rally in 2019, Chicago wheat futures rallied by 29% in 48 days and fell by 21% in the two months that followed.
- Wheat prices peaked at $9.43 per bushel in 2012 and bottomed at $3.88 in 2016 over the last decade, ranging between $4.25 per bushel and $5.75 per bushel in the last three years.