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Acreage and Production Market Analysis


Production is the starting point to supply and demand analysis which is used to determine fair market value of a commodity. In the US, market prices are influenced during the period when commodities are developing, and in the case of wheat development is monitored over a long period from September when it is planted until the summer when it is harvested, with the key yield-determining period being the spring months. In the case of soybeans world production is rather evenly split between the northern and southern hemisphere with the key market period occurring in the summer in the north and during the January to March period in the south.

Key facts about acreage and production in the crops market
  • World corn and soybean production have each increased about 30% over last 10 years, world wheat production increased 20%, and technology continues to push production efficiencies around the world
  • The US is the largest corn exporter, but due to growth in Russia and South America corn production US could soon be the world’s residual supplier.
  • Brazil is the largest soybean exporter at over 75 million tonnes annually, accounting for half of the world soybean trade, 50 percent% than US exports.
  • China is the world’s largest soybean importer, purchasing about one-quarter of the world’s soybean production each year. China’s soybean imports have doubled in the last 10 years, with nearly 100 million tonnes expected to be imported in the next marketing year.
  • Acreage and production is affected by price, with prices at time of planting determining changes in planting patterns, then it influences prices when assessing productivity compared with market expectations.

Key themes affecting acreage and production in the crops market

Commodity production is constantly looking forward and currently the market is looking at production prospects in South America, which we believe are better than market expectations with forecasts from various sources now beginning to catch up.

The production prospects and market competitiveness of South America's corn and soybeans will influence prices in the US and other northern hemisphere countries’ plantings. In addition, the US-China trade agreement has potential to significantly influence prices, however its purchasing patterns cannot be easily predicted given. Plantings in the US will start in April and will be completed by June, following that plantings are set and the question becomes what will the yield be.

The outcome of the Northern Hemisphere production can influence planting patterns in the Southern Hemisphere as well as next season’s northern hemisphere plantings.

Solutions

At IHS Markit we offer market-leading food commodities information solutions via our globally recognised IEG Vantage and IEG Vu services. We are specialists in offering comprehensive data and analysis across the global agricultural commodities and processed food markets, with current, short-term and long-term solutions to support all your operational needs.

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IEG Vantage is the only service in the market that provide comprehensive analysis of near-term market developments for the 12 months ahead, from market trends to supply-demand, production and price forecasts. Our acreage and production reports cover all major US crops at a national- and state-level in leading production states, and are based on monthly US crop acreage, yield and production surveys conducted at the same time as the USDA surveys and are available one week before the government reports are published to give subscribers a trading advantage.

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Over three decades of historical pricing, production and trade data across all food commodities sectors available to purchase to support your organisation with strategic analysis and economic modelling.

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Consulting services spanning all your needs in the agricultural commodities and processed food markets, from long-term forecasting beyond what is available in our subscription services to market studies for financial investments reviewing everything from market forecasts to competitor intelligence.

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