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Ammonia Fertilizer Market and Price Analysis

Ammonia is one of the most widely produced industrial chemicals in the world. It is the primary component used to produce all nitrogen containing fertilizers (urea, nitrates, ammonium sulphate, MAP and DAP), and is important in the manufacture of a wide range of industrial chemicals.

Key facts about the ammonia fertilizer market
  • The global ammonia market amounts to 181 million tonnes, of which just 10% (19 million tonnes) is traded on the world market.
  • Global capacity expanded at a higher rate than demand over 2011-2015 due to significant new investments and has now reached 230 million tonnes with utilisation rates below 80%.
  • Growth of export-oriented capacity in Indonesia, Russia and Oman, and import substitution capacity in the US have led to more competition and a reshaping of trade flows (Trinidad and Indonesia looking for new markets and competing with the traditional suppliers).
  • New developments in feedstocks: LNG inflow and cheaper gas prices across the world have made marginal ammonia producers more competitive, making the cost curve lower and flatter.
  • New challenges: “green ammonia” technologies could change the landscape in the next 10-20 years.

Key themes affecting the ammonia fertilizer market

The current oversupply situation combined with low feedstock costs have put downward pressure on prices though reduced production costs have allowed the marginal producers to remain viable. Weak demand from downstream fertilizers (phosphates) and industrial ammonia users is slowing market recovery. There is a long list of possible projects as natural gas monetization is an acute problem in many regions, but the current market situation is limiting interest in new investments. Forecasts of new capacity additions are considerably less than in recent years, and we do not expect many new projects in 2020-2025, especially those which will have a surplus to be sold on the merchant market (1 small plant in Oman, 2 in the US and 1 in Saudi Arabia). As a result, slowly growing consumption should absorb a part of this excess supply in the coming 2-3 years and balance the market. Demand growth is forecast for India (DAP/NP/NPK production), Morocco (phosphates), Turkey (nitrates and NPK), China (industrial demand and phosphates), Ukraine (nitrates) and some European countries (notably Belgium, Bulgaria, Norway). China has reduced its domestic ammonia and urea capacity and has imposed stricter environmental policies; it may increase imports if new import infrastructure becomes available. Decarbonisation remains a challenge as the ammonia industry is a notable producer of CO2 emissions - “green ammonia” technologies under development are still much more expensive than the conventional process to produce ammonia from hydrocarbons, but may become an alternative in 10-20 years from now.

Average annual ammonia prices and import volumes internationally
Fob Yuzhnyy priceCfr Tampa PriceTTF Europe gas price, $/mmbtuUS imports, thousand tonnesChina imports, thousand tonnes
2017$269$283$5.73,746 kt719 kt
2018$289$315$7.92,920 kt933 kt
2019$235$250$4.42,459 kt1,054 kt

Solutions

At IHS Markit we offer market-leading ammonia fertilizer information solutions via our globally recognised Fertecon service. Specialists in offering comprehensive data and analysis across the global fertilizer market, with current, short-term and long-term solutions to support all operational needs in your organisation.

Current price reports
Weekly Report

Keep abreast of the ammonia market and spot new opportunities with our weekly market report. Key benefits include reliable price discovery, news on key developments, and trade statistics and news alerts.

More about our Methodology
Short-term price forecasts
Monthly Futures Report

Plan for the mid-term and make smarter investment decisions with our ammonia market intelligence. Key benefits include global market overview, major company news, and trade statistics alerts.

Long-term market outlooks
Quarterly Market Reports

Steer your business in the right strategic direction with this in-depth quarterly report on the ammonia market, forecasting out 10 years. Key benefits include comprehensive market analysis, price, supply demand and trade forecasts, and coverage of hot topics.

Bespoke solutions
API and Data Feeds

Pricing, supply-demand and forecasts on the ammonia market delivered directly to your organisation to support centralised models and trading systems used by team members across your business.

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One-time Data Exports

Over three decades of historical ammonia pricing, production and trade data across all core nutrients available to purchase to support your organisation with strategic analysis and economic modelling./p>

Consulting

Consulting services spanning all your needs in the fertilizer markets, from long-term forecasting beyond what is available in our subscription services to market studies for financial investments reviewing everything from market forecasts to competitor intelligence.

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